Among Canada’s provinces, Alberta has the worst record for accurate annual spending and revenue projections. Between 1999 and 2009, Alberta Conservative governments almost routinely varied their annual spending by 10 per cent from projected annual targets, and surpassed 20 per cent in 2007-2008. For the decade as a whole, Alberta spent $11.4 billion more than initially planned.

On the revenue side, Alberta’s annual projections have been even more inaccurate, a difficulty that stems largely from unpredictable prices (and hence royalty revenue) for oil and gas. For 1999-2009, the province collected $30.7 billion more than its finance officials anticipated. Revenue overruns for British Columbia were $12.4 billion, second highest among the provinces.

These figures come from the Backgrounder, a publication from the C.D. Howe Institute. The Ottawa-based think tank frets that poor forecasting of revenue and spending tends to undermine confidence among voters and investors. However, Backgrounder authors Colin Busby and William Robson  acknowledge that Alberta has the best record for balancing its spending and revenue changes within the fiscal year. All in all, the Tories have turned in a pretty good performance.

A synopsis of the study can be found here.